In a market where material prices are still elevated and labor remains tight, relying on “what we did last time” is riskier than ever.
Labor, material and indirect costs are moving targets requiring sophisticated estimates rooted in real data to protect margins. As the new year approaches, consider an estimating reset to tighten your bids using tools, data and risks you’re actually dealing with in today’s market.
BUILD YOUR ESTIMATE AROUND TODAY’S REALITY, NOT LAST YEAR’S NUMBERS
You already track material quotes and labor rates, but the question is how current those assumptions really are.
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Refresh key input prices like concrete, steel, asphalt, aggregates, mechanical and electrical systems as late in the bid cycle as practical.
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Separate “known” supplier quotes from allowances or provisional sums so everyone can see where you’re exposed.
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Carry realistic contingencies for volatile trades instead of hiding risk in markup.
Think of your baseline estimate as a snapshot of today’s market, not a recycled spreadsheet from the last time you did a similar job.
SWEAT THE SCOPE DETAILS BECAUSE OWNERS ALREADY ARE
For experienced contractors, the biggest bid killers aren’t usually takeoff mistakes, it’s scope gaps and vague assumptions.
Model-based estimating isn’t hype anymore, it’s becoming a practical way to improve accuracy when the project is being designed in BIM anyway.
Research from the Brookings Institution on infrastructure procurement found that states providing detailed project plans and unit costs saw significantly lower realized costs than those offering only total contract values. Poorly defined scopes and frequent change orders correlated with higher costs per lane-mile and more renegotiation.
Translated to your world: the more specific the documents, assumptions and clarifications are before you price, the fewer surprises you’ll be eating later.
Practical moves:
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Turn “include all site work” into a line-by-line breakdown of demo, utilities, subgrade prep, restoration and testing.
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Document what’s excluded and what’s assumed (e.g., rock quantities, remediation limits, night work, traffic control durations).
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Use RFIs strategically to force clarity on ambiguous details before you lock in numbers.
Accurate bids start with uncomfortable conversations about scope. If something feels fuzzy, price it after you get it nailed down.
LET YOUR CHANGE ORDERS TEACH YOUR NEXT ESTIMATE
Most contractors can point to a handful of projects where the original estimate looked fine but change orders and rework destroyed the margin.
A 2025 peer-reviewed study in Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research found that change orders driven by design changes and planning errors were strongly associated with cost overruns and delays on large projects.
Instead of just closing out a job and filing it, mine it:
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Tag every change order to a root cause: design gap, missed quantity, productivity assumption, third-party delay, client scope creep, etc.
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Roll that “pain data” into your estimating templates as adjustment factors or checklists.
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When you see patterns (e.g., site utilities and earthwork always trending over), build those realities into your base rates and contingencies.
The goal isn’t to avoid every change order; it’s to make sure your estimates reflect the problems you already know tend to show up.
USE 5D AND MODEL-BASED WORKFLOWS WHERE THEY ACTUALLY HELP
Model-based estimating isn’t hype anymore, it’s becoming a practical way to improve accuracy when the project is being designed in BIM anyway.
A recent paper in the Journal of Information Technology in Construction found that integrated 5D BIM systems (where quantities and costs are linked directly to the model) can streamline cost estimating, monitoring and cash flow, reducing inefficiencies that come from disconnected spreadsheets and payment applications.
At the same time, adoption is still uneven. A global study by RICS and Glodon, summarized in AEC-Business, reported that only 39% of organizations use QTO and estimating tools integrated with BIM or a common data environment; 30% still don’t use specialized estimating tools at all.
For a seasoned estimator, that means opportunity:
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When designers are working in BIM, insist on model access and use it to validate quantities in your own system.
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Focus model-based workflows on complex, repetition-heavy scopes (e.g., façade elements, MEP systems, rebar) where manual takeoff is slow and error-prone.
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Use 5D primarily as a cross-check and coordination tool, not a magic auto-estimate button.
The value isn’t in the buzzword; it’s in catching what 2D drawings might miss.
LET AI TAKEOFF DO THE GRUNT WORK; BUT DON’T TURN OFF YOUR BRAIN
AI-powered takeoff tools are no longer science fiction. A 2025 article in Robotics & Automation News describes how newer systems use computer vision and machine learning to read drawings and generate quantity counts in minutes, allowing estimators to review and refine rather than measure every line manually.
The key, especially for experienced pros, is to treat AI as an assistant, not a replacement:
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Use AI takeoff to handle repetitive counting (fixtures, fittings, standard details) and free your time for risk items, logistics and constructability.
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Always perform a structured review: spot-check quantities against known benchmarks (e.g., typical LF of pipe per unit, SF per room).
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Compare AI output on one pilot project to your traditional methods so you understand its strengths and blind spots before rolling it out widely.
The contractors who win here aren’t the ones with the flashiest software; they’re the ones who combine pattern recognition from decades in the field with faster, more consistent digital tools.
MAKE ESTIMATING A TEAM SPORT
Finally, the best estimating tip isn’t about software at all: it’s about who’s in the room.
Bring superintendents, foremen and key subs into the process early. They know where productivity gets crushed, which details always cause RFIs and how phasing really plays out. Their feedback can sharpen crew rates, durations and allowances in ways no cost index can.
Because for contractors who’ve been around the block, an estimating reset could allow you to finally get paid for what you already know how to do.
CONEXPO-CON/AGG 2026 is the ideal place to refine your estimating by exploring next-gen tools from exhibitors and proven strategies in education sessions. Register today.
Photo credit: SHUTTERSTOCK/QUALITY STOCK ARTS
