As Solar Cycle 25 ramps up, industries across the globe are preparing for its potential impacts, and the construction industry is no exception because construction, mining and agriculture industries are all using more machines and technology that could be impacted unlike in past solar cycles. Dozers, excavators and graders are especially at risk. CONEXPO CON/AGG 365 talked with Ed Norse, portfolio manager, OEM GNSS, Trimble, about how to best prepare and navigate Solar Cycle 25.
WHAT IS SOLAR CYCLE 25?
Solar cycles are approximately 11-year periods during which the Sun's magnetic activity fluctuates, impacting the solar radiation and geomagnetic storms that reach Earth. Solar Cycle 25 is expected to peak around 2025. This peak will bring an increase in sunspots and solar flares, potentially causing geomagnetic storms that can disrupt satellite communications, GPS systems and power grids.
Norse explains, "The ionosphere, a layer of the atmosphere, delays signals coming from GNSS satellites. During the solar cycle peak, the ionosphere becomes noisier, causing additional delays."
WHO NEEDS TO BE CONCERNED?
The construction industry, particularly companies relying on high-accuracy Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technologies like Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning, should be vigilant. RTK GNSS provides centimeter-level accuracy, essential for tasks such as site surveys, machine control and autonomous operations in construction, agriculture and mining.
Norse points out, "We have a lot more machines relying on GNSS RTK now than in the past. If these systems are disrupted, machines can become unproductive, significantly impacting project timelines and costs."
Solar storms can stop operations for a few hours at a time, which for some companies could cause significant delays in project timelines and millions in lost productivity.
While a large solar storm can happen anywhere and at any time, they occur most often along the equator, during the evening hours and between September and March, Norse said. Many mining operations in South America were being shut down for hours multiple times a week before Trimble upgraded its firmware to address the affected satellites.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY
Disruption of GNSS Signals: Increased solar activity can cause significant GNSS signal delays, reducing accuracy from centimeters to several meters. This level of inaccuracy can halt operations reliant on precise measurements. “We have a lot more users using RTK on machines than we did in the last cycle,” Norse said. “It's more than doubling every cycle.”
Autonomous Equipment: Many construction companies use autonomous equipment, such as drones in construction and self-driving vehicles in mining. Disruptions to GNSS signals can render these machines inoperable or not working at their expected level of accuracy, leading to delays and rework. “It's a good idea to go back and check, maybe a few hours later, to make sure that the site was graded correctly,” Norse said.
Safety Concerns: Inaccurate GNSS data can cause autonomous machinery often used in mining to operate unsafely, especially near high-risk areas like cliffs and high walls where centimeters make a stark difference. The machine should tell the operator that they are now working at an accuracy of 20 centimeters instead of 1 centimeter, Norse said, adding that a machine should shut down or not start if the accuracy is outside of specification.
PREPARING FOR SOLAR CYCLE 25
Construction companies can take several proactive steps to mitigate the impact of Solar Cycle 25 on their operations:
Upgrade Equipment: Ensure all GNSS equipment is up to date with the latest firmware. Older equipment may not support recent technologies designed to combat ionospheric interference. Norse advises, "Customers should make sure their receivers are running the latest software and consider upgrading older hardware." Norse also advises doing checks of all receivers and rovers, especially on older equipment which sometimes can’t run the latest firmware.
Monitor Solar Activity: Sign up for alerts from NOAA for forecasts and real-time data on solar activity. Follow the NASA blog for updates. Familiarize yourself with Trimble’s real-time map, showing what areas are being affected and which satellites are down. This gives companies a head’s up about potential disruptions, allowing them to adjust schedules and operations accordingly.
“The warnings start coming and then it will take three days for the radiation to get to the earth,” Norse said. “So, then they should monitor that map to see if the area that they're in is being affected.”
Implement Redundancies: Have backup systems and protocols in place. This could include manual surveying tools or alternative navigation methods to ensure operations can continue if GNSS signals are disrupted.
Training and Awareness: Educate employees about the potential impacts of Solar Cycle 25 and train them on how to respond to disruptions. Solar updates could also be incorporated into morning safety talks.
Have A Plan for High-Risk Periods: Schedule maintenance or less critical tasks during predicted high-activity periods to minimize the impact on essential operations. “We need to be prepared and that's why keeping an eye on those warnings from agencies like NOAA is a good practice. They will see this coming.”
Use Advanced Technologies: Consider technologies like Trimble IonoGuard™, which helps to identify and mitigate the effects of ionospheric disturbances on GNSS signals. "IonoGuard, uses base stations to monitor and identify problematic satellites, allowing users to maintain accuracy," Norse explained.
Awareness is key. Knowing that these disruptions can occur and having a plan in place can make all the difference.
Ed Norse
Portfolio Manager, OEM GNSS, Trimble
CASE STUDY: THE MAY 10 EVENT
On May 10, a significant solar storm provided a glimpse of what Solar Cycle 25 could bring – along with auroras as far south as Georgia in the U.S. The storm caused noticeable disruptions in mid-latitude regions, particularly in the U.S., affecting mostly agriculture and some construction. Up until then, most of the solar activity effects had been in the equatorial regions like South America, with almost weekly instances of work coming to a stop. But the May 10 storm gave North America a glimpse of what could happen if solar activity increases during the peak next year. It also showed the importance of being prepared.
Norse recounts, "We saw people calling up, saying their machines were down and not operating. Those with our new technology, like IonoGuard, were not affected and were able to continue operations without interruption."
This event highlighted the importance of preparedness and the effectiveness of advanced GNSS and RTK technologies in mitigating solar storm impacts.
“Those customers were not affected, and they were able to coast through the issue, which was really great, and showed our work over the last few years,” Norse said about those using IonoGuard and those who had not upgraded.
The U.S. was lucky with the May 10 storm occurring on a weekend when most companies are not working. The storm mostly affected agriculture operations with some reports from construction sites in Alaska. The May 10 storm was the largest storm in 20 years, causing disruptions to machine guidance and navigation.
“May 10 was a real wake up call to the industry that they needed not just standard RTK, GNSS; they needed GNSS that was protected from the ionosphere,” Norse said.
LOOKING AHEAD
As Solar Cycle 25 progresses, it is crucial for the construction industry to remain vigilant and prepared. While not every region will experience severe disruptions, being proactive can prevent significant operational and financial setbacks, especially with the peak not expected until 2025.
Norse advises, "Awareness is key. Knowing that these disruptions can occur and having a plan in place can make all the difference."
In summary, Solar Cycle 25 poses concern to the construction industry, particularly for companies reliant on high-accuracy GNSS and RTK technologies, but companies can navigate possible effects. By upgrading equipment, monitoring solar activity, implementing redundancies and investing in advanced technologies, construction companies can mitigate these risks and maintain productivity during periods of heightened solar activity.
For those in the industry, staying informed and prepared is the best defense against the unpredictable nature of Solar Cycle 25. The goal is not to cause panic but to ensure everyone is aware and prepared for potential disruptions, safeguarding both productivity and safety.
“Don't panic,” Norse said. “It is good to be aware, but don't panic. If you're in mid-latitudes, it probably won't affect you that much. If you're in equatorial regions, you probably already know about it pretty well, because it's a weekly occurrence.”
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Photo courtesy of Trimble. Header photo credit: MILOSLAV/BIGSTOCKPHOTO.COM
